兴业证券：对2026年新单销售保持信心 坚定看好保险板块投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is expected to continue and strengthen the current round of systematic value reassessment by 2026, driven by stable interest spreads and rapid expansion of investment asset scales, leading to an overall improvement in profitability [1] Industry Investment Logic - Insurance company profits are composed of underwriting profits and investment profits, with underwriting profits influenced by premium income, claims, and operational costs. Investment profits depend on investment returns and liability interest costs, affected by capital markets, preset interest rates, and product structures. The macroeconomic and capital market environment is anticipated to transition from a downward economic cycle to an upward cycle, with net profit remaining a key focus [2] Underwriting Side - New premium income for listed insurance companies is expected to continue growing in 2026, with a stable value rate and overall NBV growth projected to achieve double-digit increases. The strong return of participating insurance can fill the gap in traditional insurance business and support new premium growth. The concentration of bancassurance is still in progress, with market share accelerating towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing reforms in individual insurance marketing systems and regulatory policies are optimizing the supply-side structure [3] Investment Side - From a fixed-income investment perspective, long-term interest rates are expected to stabilize in 2026, with a slow upward trend and insufficient downward momentum, leading to a range-bound market. The potential expansion of participating institutions in the bond southbound market to insurance institutions may provide new opportunities for fixed-income investments, enhancing overall asset yield and alleviating interest spread pressure. From an equity investment perspective, the promotion of long-term capital market entry policies may lead listed insurance companies to increase their equity allocations, with total investment returns expected to continue growing [4]