氧化铝、电解铝，冰火两重天！

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices dropping sharply while electrolytic aluminum prices are on the rise, creating a "ice and fire" scenario in the market [1][8][13]. Price Trends - As of December 10, the main contract for alumina futures fell below 2500 yuan/ton, marking a significant decline from last year's peak of 5500 yuan/ton, representing a "halving" in price [1][4]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has increased, with the average price reaching 22,100 yuan/ton as of December 5, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.60% [6][10]. Cost Dynamics - The production cost for electrolytic aluminum is heavily influenced by alumina prices, which have decreased by over 3000 yuan/ton compared to last year, thus improving profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers [4][5]. - The production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum requires 1.92 tons of alumina, 0.46 tons of anode, and 13,500 kWh of electricity, which together account for 90% of the production cost [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of alumina is expected to remain high, with a projected production of 74.46 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while electrolytic aluminum production is only expected to grow by 2% [9][10]. - The disparity in supply growth between alumina and electrolytic aluminum is leading to a continued decline in alumina prices, while electrolytic aluminum prices are supported by tight supply conditions and strong demand [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum will continue, with alumina prices likely to remain under pressure due to oversupply, while electrolytic aluminum prices may see further increases driven by demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [13][14]. - The expected supply surplus for alumina could exceed 10 million tons, while the electrolytic aluminum market may face tighter conditions in certain months due to production constraints [13][14].