Fed's Goolsbee Says Dissent Wasn't About Being a Hawk

Inflation Trends - The inflation rate has remained above the 2% target for four and a half years, with recent data indicating a 3% inflation rate for services in the first half of the year and 3.5% in the last three months before a significant event [1][2] - Concerns have been raised about persistent inflation, which is not primarily driven by tariffs, indicating a potential long-term issue [2] Economic Outlook - The company believes that if the current uncertainties are resolved, interest rates could decrease significantly from their current levels, but caution is advised due to ongoing inflation above target levels [3] - There is a sentiment that waiting for more data before making decisions would be prudent, especially with the expectation of receiving substantial information in Q1 of 2026 [4][6] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market shows signs of stability, with low layoff rates and a rising job openings rate, which are characteristics of a strong job market rather than a recession [7][8] - Despite some cooling in the hiring rate, the overall job market indicators suggest that it is not in a state of decline, providing confidence in the economic outlook [7][8] Decision-Making Considerations - The company suggests that a more cautious approach to rate cuts is warranted until there is clear evidence that inflation is decreasing [9]