Oracle may underperform compared to other large cap AI stocks in 2026, says Deepwater's Gene Munster

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Oracle in 2026 is expected to be an underperformer compared to other large-cap AI companies due to potential capacity constraints and growth targets that may not be met [3][4]. Group 1: Oracle's Performance and Outlook - Oracle's backlog improved by $63 billion recently, but this creates challenges for future performance expectations [4]. - Despite impressive growth targets, Oracle is likely to fall short, making it difficult to improve its valuation multiple [3]. - The risk of contagion from Oracle to other AI players is considered low, as recent events have helped minimize this risk [2]. Group 2: AI Market Dynamics - The AI market is currently experiencing a downturn, with stocks off by approximately 10-20%, which may be necessary for establishing a market bottom [6]. - There is ongoing optimism around AI, and discussions will shift back to expectations for December earnings and early 2024 [7]. - The fundamentals of AI are expected to improve, indicating that the market is still in the early stages of transformation [8]. Group 3: Pricing and Commoditization - Concerns about the commoditization of AI are linked to pricing strategies, with discussions around a potential 10x annual decline in pricing [10][11]. - However, it is suggested that not all token pricing will decline significantly, and some high-quality tokens may still see growth [12][13]. - The relationship between pricing and usage is highlighted, with the potential for increased usage as prices decrease, similar to trends seen in other tech sectors [11].