Sugar Prices Weighed Down by Weakness in Crude Oil

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined due to increased production in major producing countries, particularly India and Brazil, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -0.80 (-0.19%) [1] - Sugar prices have retreated to 3-week lows, influenced by a surge in production in India and Brazil [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million MT, with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 million MT, with a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through mid-November rose by +2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 million MT [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The robust global sugar supply outlook has pressured sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 million MT, reflecting a significant rise from previous estimates [5]