存量博弈 消费破局新十年——十个关键词，看懂中国消费存量竞争

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is entering a golden period characterized by innovation resilience and value insight, despite ongoing economic challenges [1] - The "14th Annual Development Conference of Listed Companies" highlighted the shift from resource expansion to quality improvement and the importance of optimizing existing resources in the context of stock competition [5][4] Group 1: Economic Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, focusing on optimizing increments and revitalizing existing resources [4] - In 2025, Hainan's retail sales of consumer goods reached 222.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, significantly outperforming the national growth rate of 4.3% [5] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The coffee and tea beverage sector is becoming a focal point for capital, with increased IPO and merger activities in 2025, indicating a trend towards resource integration and industry upgrading [7] - The domestic tea beverage market is projected to reach 374.9 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 16% from 2023 to 2028 [14] Group 3: Capital and Market Strategies - Starbucks is shifting its strategy in China by forming a joint venture with Boyu Capital, allowing for localized operations and a projected retail business value exceeding 13 billion dollars [10] - The trend of "capital localization" is becoming crucial for foreign brands to adapt to the competitive landscape in China, as evidenced by Starbucks' partnership [12] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - The demand for travel and tourism is robust, with nearly 5 billion domestic trips taken in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [7] - The rise of "reverse tourism" indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards less crowded, value-oriented destinations, with significant growth in county-level tourism [29] Group 5: Digital and Supply Chain Innovations - New tea beverage brands are focusing on digital capabilities and supply chain enhancements post-IPO, aiming to optimize product development and operational efficiency [15] - The integration of digital and intelligent operations is becoming essential for brands to improve efficiency and user experience in the competitive landscape [19] Group 6: Cultural and Emotional Engagement - The emergence of "accompanying services" in tourism reflects a shift towards emotional and experiential value, indicating a growing market potential in the "accompanying economy" [38] - The integration of sports events with tourism is creating new consumption scenarios, as seen with the "Su Super" football league, which significantly boosted local tourism and spending [32][40] Group 7: Future Outlook - The competition in the consumption market will increasingly focus on supply chain depth, digital precision, emotional value, and IP collaboration, as brands seek to navigate the new economic landscape [42] - The resilience and vitality of China's consumption market will continue to be released through innovative strategies and a deep understanding of user demand changes [42]