Morgan Stanley Just Broke Up with Tesla: Should You Buy or Sell TSLA Stock Here?

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Tesla's stock from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" while raising its target price to $425 from $410, marking the first downgrade in two years [1][2] Group 1: Downgrade Context - The downgrade was made by Andrew Percoco, who has taken over coverage from Adam Jonas, a long-time Tesla bull [2] - The decision reflects concerns about Tesla's automotive business, with expected cumulative volume growth projected to be 18.5% lower through 2040 due to slower adoption in the U.S. and increased competition globally [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition from Chinese EV manufacturers is intensifying, with potential to significantly impact Tesla's U.S. sales if tariffs on imports from China were not in place [4] - The U.S. EV industry is anticipated to experience a more prolonged slump than previously suggested by Elon Musk [4] Group 3: Non-Automotive Business Concerns - Percoco believes that Tesla's non-automotive initiatives, such as autonomous driving and the Optimus humanoid robot, are already priced into the stock [5] - Execution risks are highlighted, as Tesla has not achieved significant success since the Model Y, and the Cybertruck has not gained market traction [5] Group 4: Self-Driving Technology Challenges - Tesla's camera-only approach to self-driving offers cost advantages over competitors like Waymo, but the company must demonstrate a high level of safety to gain regulatory trust, especially in adverse weather conditions [6] - Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) software has faced challenges in extreme weather, raising concerns about its reliability [6]