Will Lululemon Stock Keep Rebounding After Strong Q3 Results?

Core Insights - Lululemon's stock surged by up to 14% following stronger-than-expected Q3 results and favorable guidance, despite still being over 50% below its 52-week high of $423 per share [1][2] - The company authorized a $1 billion stock repurchase plan and announced the upcoming resignation of CEO Calvin McDonald, which is seen positively after a challenging year [2] Q3 Performance - Q3 sales increased by 7% year over year to $2.56 billion, surpassing estimates of $2.48 billion, driven by strong international growth, particularly in Asia and Europe, where revenue rose by 33% and comparable store sales grew by 18% [4] - The Americas segment saw a 2% decline in sales, with comparable store sales down by 5%, but global digital sales reached $1.1 billion, a 13% increase, contributing to 42% of total revenue for the quarter [5] Guidance and Financial Metrics - Lululemon raised its full-year sales guidance to $10.96-$11.05 billion, up from $10.85-$11 billion, and increased EPS targets to $12.92-$13.02, exceeding previous forecasts and consensus estimates [6] - Operating margins decreased to 17% from 20.5% in the same quarter last year, while the return on invested capital (ROIC) improved to 32%, indicating efficient capital use despite recent fluctuations [8] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The free cash flow conversion rate fell to 72.9%, below the preferred range of 80% or higher, suggesting that profits are not fully translating into cash, often seen in rapidly expanding companies [9] - Despite liquidity concerns not being raised, Lululemon's operational efficiency is perceived to have declined, placing it outside the top tier of quality companies [10] Future Outlook - The increasing ROIC and expansion in international and digital sales are seen as promising signs for Lululemon's potential return to strong growth [13] - The current valuation of 14X forward earnings is considered attractive for long-term investors, even as better buying opportunities may arise following the post-earnings rally [13]