铅蓄消费转淡 铅价短期延续反弹承压走势

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with a weekly drop of 1.01% in prices, while the trading volume has decreased significantly [1] Market Performance - As of December 12, 2025, the main lead futures contract closed at 17,125 CNY/ton, with a weekly opening at 17,340 CNY/ton, a high of 17,380 CNY/ton, and a low of 17,015 CNY/ton [1] - The weekly trading volume decreased by 11,176 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Supply and Production - A small-scale recycled lead smelting enterprise in Central China has halted production due to environmental regulations, resulting in a production drop of approximately 300 tons compared to the previous week; however, the impact is considered limited, and resumption of production is imminent [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a total lead inventory of 235,475 tons, with a reduction of 75 tons [2] Price Trends - On December 11, the spot price of lead was reported at 17,175 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 106.25 CNY/ton or 0.62% from the previous day [2] - Over the past week, the lead price has decreased by 25 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.15%, and over the past month, it has dropped by 212.5 CNY/ton, or 1.22% [2] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Futures suggests that after a rebound from the bottom, the expectation of reduced domestic recycled lead supply and relatively low inventory may support prices; however, weak consumption in lead-acid batteries and increased imports could improve social inventory, recommending light short positions on rallies [4] - Zhonghui Futures notes that both maintenance and resumption of production in domestic primary and recycled lead are occurring, leading to an overall expectation of reduced supply; the automotive sector remains in a consumption lull, indicating that lead prices may face continued downward pressure in the short term [4]