Sugar Prices Fall as Crude Oil Slumps

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices have declined recently, with March NY world sugar 11 closing down 0.06 (-0.40%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 down 1.90 (-0.45%) on Thursday [1] - The drop in sugar prices is attributed to a significant decrease in crude oil prices, which fell to a 7-week low, potentially leading sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production surged by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) from October to November, with 428 sugar mills actively crushing cane, up from 376 the previous year [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is also positive, with Conab raising its 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT, an increase from 44.5 MMT, and a reported 8.7% year-on-year rise in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Global Supply Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [4] Market Impact - The outlook for increased global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from the previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [5]