明年市场如何投？多家公募解读来了

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing summarized the economic work for 2025 and systematically deployed the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need to fully tap economic potential and combine policy support with reform and innovation [1] - Multiple public fund companies expressed optimism about the policy signals released during the conference, believing that the capital market in 2026 will still present investment opportunities, particularly in areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and combating "involution" [1][3] Group 2 - The conference indicated a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with a focus on the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit, and optimizing fiscal expenditure structure [3] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with a similar expansionary effort in 2026 as in 2025, potentially maintaining a historical deficit target of 4% [3][4] Group 3 - Monetary policy is anticipated to continue with an "appropriate easing" approach, emphasizing the dual support for economic stability and reasonable price recovery, which may allow for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [4] - The combination of "loose fiscal and monetary" policies is expected to provide a relatively ample liquidity environment for the capital market, creating favorable conditions for equity asset valuation recovery [4] Group 4 - The conference outlined key tasks for 2026, including a focus on domestic demand, innovation-driven growth, and addressing "involution," which are expected to be the main investment themes for the capital market [6][7] - There is significant potential for service consumption recovery, particularly as per capita GDP rises, and policies aimed at "investing in people" are expected to further open up service consumption opportunities [6][7] Group 5 - The emphasis on "new quality productivity" driven by technological innovation is expected to accelerate the transformation of traditional industries and support the development of strategic emerging industries, with a focus on areas like artificial intelligence, new energy, and new materials [7][8] - The deployment to boost consumption in 2026 is likely to provide rich investment opportunities in sectors such as elderly care, cultural tourism, and new infrastructure [8] Group 6 - The conference highlighted the need for continuous deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms, which may enhance the investment value and attractiveness of the A-share market [10] - Public funds are expected to play a significant role in attracting long-term capital and should leverage policy opportunities to improve long-term assessment mechanisms and professional investment advantages [10][11]