城数Lab. | “十四五”收官在即，谁是最强轨交“黑马”？

Core Insights - The report highlights the progress of urban rail transit construction and operation in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant expansions in both the number of cities and operational mileage [1][17]. Group 1: Urban Rail Expansion - From the end of 2020 to November 2023, 10 new cities have opened urban rail transit, adding nearly 100 lines and over 3,500 kilometers of operational mileage [1][17]. - Notably, several county-level cities, such as Haining, Kunshan, and Jurong, have entered the urban rail scene, which has drawn attention from larger cities that missed out on this development [4][21]. Group 2: Mileage Rankings - As of November 2023, a total of 54 cities have operational urban rail transit, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen leading in mileage, each exceeding 600 kilometers [4][22]. - The ranking of operational mileage has seen a shift, with Xi'an surpassing Qingdao to claim the tenth position [4][22]. Group 3: Notable Increases in Mileage - Hangzhou and Guangzhou have recorded over 200 kilometers of mileage increase, with Guangzhou expected to surpass Hangzhou by the end of the year due to the opening of additional lines [8][26]. - Jinan is projected to significantly increase its operational mileage to 248 kilometers by the end of the year, potentially surpassing several other cities [8][26]. Group 4: Emerging Players and Trends - Foshan has made a remarkable leap in rankings, moving from 43rd to 23rd place, surpassing several provincial capitals [12][30]. - The trend indicates a tightening of approvals for new urban rail projects during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a shift in focus towards existing line efficiency and passenger flow metrics [12][30][34]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The emphasis is shifting from rapid network expansion to improving operational efficiency and sustainability in urban rail systems [16][35].