财信研究院宏观团队|目标积极务实，政策提质增效，内需主导强化——2025年中央经济工作会议解读

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].