全球银价屡创新高 须理性投资“脱缰野马”——全球白银价格突破64美元的解析

Core Insights - Silver prices reached historic highs in December 2025, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 110% to over $64 per ounce, and Shanghai silver futures surpassing 15,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant milestone in the market [3][4][20]. Price Trends - On December 12, 2025, COMEX silver futures peaked at $64.74 per ounce, while London spot silver also exceeded $64 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures closed at 14,892 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 108% [3][19]. - The trading volume in China's silver futures market surged, with a peak of 2.7034 million contracts on December 1, 2025, and a stable open interest above 400,000 contracts [3][19]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a significant supply-demand imbalance, with global silver production expected to decline to 820 million ounces (approximately 2,580 tons) in 2025, a 12% decrease from 2020 [8][25]. - The demand for silver is projected to explode, particularly from the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to consume 7,560 tons of silver in 2025, doubling its share of global silver demand from 20% in 2022 to 55% [9][26]. Market Conditions - The correlation between domestic and international silver markets is exceptionally high, with a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.96, indicating strong interdependence [6][22]. - The volatility of silver futures has surged to 60%, significantly above historical averages, with extreme daily price fluctuations observed [6][22]. Inventory Levels - Global visible silver inventories are alarmingly low, covering only 1.2 months of consumption, well below the safe threshold of 3-6 months. London silver inventories have dropped below 4,000 tons, and China's silver stock has reached a seven-year low of 715 tons [11][28]. Monetary Policy Impact - The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards interest rate cuts starting in September 2025 has provided a strong boost to the silver bull market, with increased investment inflows into silver markets [13][30]. Investment Strategies - Major investment banks have raised their silver price forecasts, with UBS suggesting a potential target of $65 per ounce in 2026, driven by ongoing interest rate cuts and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [14][31].