白银强势表现：新周期的信号还是强弩之末？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, approaching the historical high of $62, driven by the FOMC meeting and year-end market momentum, raising questions about the sustainability of broader market trends, which remain below the 2025 historical peak [1][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in silver prices reflects not only in price but also in market sentiment, following a year of market lethargy due to policy shifts and tariff changes during the new presidential term [1][14]. - Historically, the second term of a president often coincides with market consolidation phases, resetting the market before the next bull cycle [1][14]. Group 2: Silver Price Outlook - The key question is whether silver is the last strong performer in the current long-term bull market or if it will lead the next phase due to its growing importance in the expanding tech sector [6][16]. - Silver has broken through the upper boundary of a dual ascending channel since the 2022 low, indicating a continuation of bullish sentiment [8][19]. - According to Elliott Wave Theory, silver is currently in the fifth wave since 2022, which often extends, suggesting potential upward movement if it holds above $63, with targets at $65 and $70 [8][19]. Group 3: Potential Price Movements - If silver falls below $57, it may retest previous resistance levels that could turn into support around $55, $50, and in extreme cases, $45 [9][19]. - From a three-month perspective, silver has broken through a 45-year resistance level at $55, with potential for a structural pullback before aiming for long-term three-digit targets [12][21].