如何让投资组合具有长远视野？

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape for 2026 suggests a focus on growth themes while avoiding over-concentration, ensuring portfolio diversification, and maintaining robust liquidity strategies to seize opportunities in a new era [4][10][26] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the market experienced significant volatility but also recorded impressive performance, driven by policy easing, corporate value enhancement strategies, and major economies pushing for reforms [3][15] - The AI boom has propelled stock markets to new highs, with gold, a safe-haven asset, rising nearly 60% over the past year, outperforming many long-term growth themes [3][15] - The global macro environment remains resilient, yet geopolitical complexities and economic security concerns persist, prompting companies to reshape supply chains for enhanced resilience [3][16] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to continue focusing on growth themes while avoiding excessive concentration, particularly in AI-related stocks, which should be limited to about one-third of the equity portfolio [21] - The global stock outlook remains positive, with expectations of a mid-double-digit upside for the MSCI All Country World Index by the end of 2026, and a projected 10% growth in S&P 500 earnings [19] - The AI capital expenditure cycle is expected to remain strong, supported by positive free cash flow from major cloud service providers and a significant increase in demand for computing power [19][20] Group 3: Regional Insights and Sector Opportunities - Different regions are pursuing distinct AI strategies, with the U.S. focusing on cutting-edge infrastructure and large models, while China emphasizes algorithm efficiency and industrial applications [20] - European markets, characterized by a high proportion of value stocks, are anticipated to see a profit recovery, with earnings growth accelerating to 7% in 2026 and further to 18% in 2027 [21] - The Chinese market presents opportunities beyond AI, with structural changes leading to improved conditions in advanced manufacturing and technology sectors [22][23] Group 4: Liquidity and Diversification Strategies - Diversification remains crucial for protecting investment portfolios amid disruptive changes, with a focus on high-quality bonds to mitigate volatility and provide income [10][25] - In the event of an economic slowdown, high-quality bonds and commodities like gold are expected to serve as effective hedges, with gold prices projected to reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [25] - Alternative assets, particularly hedge funds and private equity, are viewed as key components of a robust investment strategy, alongside maintaining sufficient liquidity to avoid forced asset sales during market turbulence [11][25]