RXO’s Curve report projects lackluster Q4, improvement in 2026

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of shifting U.S. trade and tariff policies, non-domiciled CDL enforcement, and changes to English language proficiency enforcement on market pressure in the trucking industry [3] - Demand is highlighted as a critical factor, with American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello suggesting that supply-side disruptions could lead to fundamental market changes, while Michigan State University Professor Jason Miller emphasizes the importance of demand [4] - Manufacturing output remains significantly weak compared to the 2007 peak, with a decline of nearly 7.8% in industrial production output and a 15.6% decline when excluding hi-tech goods [5] Group 2 - The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) showed fluctuations, with new orders contracting for three consecutive months as of November, although primary metals experienced growth [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point aims to support sluggish manufacturing, indicating moderate economic improvement but heightened uncertainty [8] - Truckload volumes are expected to remain muted in Q4, with a potential meaningful shift anticipated in 2026, despite October and November showing year-over-year performance improvements [9]