源达信息宏观策略周报：中央经济工作会议定调明年经济工作，美联储降息25bp

Group 1: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [1][7][10] - The conference outlined key tasks for the upcoming year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, fostering new productive forces, and enhancing the quality of economic growth [10][12][13] - The meeting highlighted the need for a flexible and effective monetary policy, with an emphasis on supporting economic stability and reasonable price recovery [11][58] Group 2: Trade and Economic Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2% and imports by 0.2% [2][18] - The trade data indicated strong performance from private enterprises and mechanical and electrical products, with significant contributions to export growth [19] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [3][20][21] Group 3: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The domestic securities market showed a mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the highest increase of 2.74%, driven by a rise in risk appetite and a focus on technology and policy-driven themes [2][48] - Investment recommendations include sectors such as technology, non-bank financials, and metals, with a particular focus on AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy [49][40][41] - The outlook for the market remains positive, supported by domestic policy initiatives and the potential for improved global liquidity following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][27][28]