Packaging Corporation of America Stock: Is PKG Underperforming the Consumer Cyclical Sector?

Company Overview - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has a market cap of $18.5 billion and is a leading North American producer of containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper, operating through two segments: Packaging and Paper [1][2] Stock Performance - PKG shares have declined 15.4% from their 52-week high of $242.68, with a 5.4% drop over the past three months, underperforming the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLB) 2.6% dip [3][4] - Year-to-date, PKG stock is down 8.8%, lagging behind XLB's 7.3% rise, and has decreased nearly 14% over the past 52 weeks compared to XLB's marginal drop [4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, PKG reported adjusted EPS of $2.73, which was weaker than expected, but shares rose 2.2% the following day due to revenue of $2.31 billion exceeding forecasts and improving from $2.2 billion a year earlier [5] - The company achieved $503.4 million in EBITDA excluding special items and solid Packaging segment operating income of $347.9 million [5] Future Outlook - Management projected Q4 EPS of $2.40 excluding special items and highlighted expected improvements from the newly acquired Greif containerboard business [6] - Analysts maintain a moderately optimistic outlook for PKG, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" from 11 analysts and a mean price target of $231.90, representing a nearly 13% premium to current levels [7]