Here's How MercadoLibre Gets to $3,000 Per Share in 2026

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is facing challenges in 2025 despite its strong position in Latin America's e-commerce and fintech sectors, with shares currently trading at approximately $2,016, down from a 52-week high of $2,645 [1] - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, with a consensus 12-month price target of $2,848, indicating a potential 41% upside from current levels [2] - The company has a history of significant returns, with the potential to reach $3,000 per share by 2026, requiring a 49% gain in that year [7][13] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, MercadoLibre reported a 39.5% year-over-year revenue growth, achieving $7.41 billion in quarterly revenue [2] - Operating margins decreased to 9.8% in Q3 2025 from 12.9% in Q1, but there is potential for recovery towards the historical range of 14-15% [10] - The company experienced a remarkable 85% gain in 2023, with revenues increasing by 40.1% and diluted EPS growing by 104% [11] Market Dynamics - E-commerce penetration in Latin America remains significantly lower than in developed markets, presenting a multi-year growth opportunity [10] - Payment volume in the fintech segment surged by 41% year-over-year to $71.2 billion in Q3, indicating strong momentum in financial services adoption [10] - The partnership with Agility Robotics to implement humanoid robots in warehouse operations highlights the company's commitment to innovation [10] Valuation Metrics - At the current price of $2,016, MercadoLibre trades at approximately 30x forward earnings, while a price of $3,000 would imply a valuation of about 45x forward earnings [3] - The forward P/E ratio of 30X represents a 39% discount compared to the trailing multiple of 49.3X, suggesting room for valuation expansion [2][3] Growth Potential - Historical performance shows that MercadoLibre has achieved returns exceeding 49% in four out of the past nine years, indicating that reaching ambitious growth targets is feasible [8] - If the company can exceed Wall Street's earnings per share (EPS) growth expectations of 33% and achieve 40% growth, it could further enhance its valuation [8]