Rich World’s Rate-Cut Momentum Is Fading Away

Economic Overview - A significant amount of delayed economic data is expected to provide insights into the US labor market and the broader economy, with key releases including jobs numbers and inflation figures from various countries [1][10] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to present higher growth forecasts, which may support the current rate hold since May, with a focus on potential future tightening [3][20] - The Bank of England (BOE) is likely to reduce borrowing costs, which could signal the end of the current monetary policy cycle [4][18] Central Bank Actions - Several central banks, including those in Mexico and Thailand, are expected to continue easing cycles, while the Bank of Japan is widely anticipated to increase rates [2][13] - The Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point cut has contributed to a cloudy outlook for further reductions, with the global economy showing resilience against US tariffs [5][6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain steady rates unless there are significant changes in inflation and growth outlooks [11] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming November jobs report is projected to show a 50,000 increase in payrolls and a 4.5% unemployment rate, indicating a sluggish labor market [7] - Delays in data collection due to the government shutdown have affected the release of October payrolls and unemployment rates [8] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show no monthly changes in most categories, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on data collection [9][10] - Canadian inflation is likely to remain close to the 2% target, with core metrics indicating underlying price pressures around 2.5% [11] Regional Economic Data - In Asia, Japan's Tankan survey is expected to show improved business sentiment, supporting a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan [12][13] - China is anticipated to report a significant decline in fixed-asset investment and weak growth in retail sales and industrial output [15] - Brazil's GDP-proxy data will be closely monitored as it reflects the economy's performance amid tight financial conditions [25]