鸽派的FOMC

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current approach is to maintain higher real wages and nominal wages above nominal inflation to enhance affordability for Americans, indicating a focus on controlling inflation while supporting the labor market and strong wages [3] - The consensus view suggests that the U.S. economy will bridge the gap between income and prices by increasing income rather than lowering prices, which is seen as the only viable path forward [4] - The potential for volatility exists in the short term due to asset purchases, but the long-term outlook remains positive for the market [4][5] Group 2 - The investment strategy for risk assets related to the U.S. in 2026 is to buy on dips, with the main concern being how low the dips will be [5] - The U.S. is expected to experience a strategic contraction in foreign policy, which aligns with domestic political dynamics, emphasizing the importance of strong economic and income growth [6] - The real estate sector in China faces two potential strategies: assessing risks during the U.S. interest rate decline or attempting to contain risks at the current moment [7] Group 3 - The need for structural economic improvement in China hinges on either stabilizing resident income or stabilizing housing prices, with both factors being interdependent [7] - Historical patterns suggest that monetary and fiscal stimuli often precede conflicts, indicating that without intervention in real estate or income stabilization, the risk of escalating tensions may increase [8][9] - The focus on technological advancement and geopolitical dynamics is seen as crucial in the current economic landscape, overshadowing traditional financial metrics [9]