AI has taken over Wall Street. Should it take over your portfolio too?

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in US technology stocks, particularly those associated with artificial intelligence, raises concerns about the potential formation of a market bubble, especially for Indian investors heavily exposed to US equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US market rally is increasingly narrow, driven by a small group of AI-linked mega-cap companies, with 10 US stocks each holding a market cap over $1 trillion [3]. - AI-related firms contributed nearly 80% of US equity gains in 2025, with the five largest AI mega-caps making up about 30% of the S&P 500 and 20% of the MSCI World Index, marking the highest concentration in nearly 50 years [4]. - The US technology sector now represents around 35% of total US market capitalization, with the 10 largest US companies accounting for over 20% of global equity value, indicating an extraordinary historical dominance [5]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 23 times forward earnings, suggesting one of the most stretched valuation phases since the dot-com boom [6]. - Despite high valuations, analysts argue that the US tech sector is not in a classic bubble, as some companies continue to generate strong cash flows that support their valuations [7][8]. - A Deutsche Bank report highlights that the rise in AI-driven valuations is accompanied by real earnings growth and robust profitability, contrasting with previous bubbles fueled by unproven business models [9]. Group 3: Risks for Indian Investors - Indian investors face unique risks due to their heavy reliance on US markets, with potential double-layered risks during a US market correction [10][11]. - The current market environment suggests that Indian investors should diversify globally rather than remain overly concentrated in US equities [10][12]. - Valuation opportunities outside the US appear more balanced, with Europe and Japan identified as attractive regions for investment [13][14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Indian investors are encouraged to diversify across developed markets like Europe and Japan, with a suggested allocation of 80% to these regions and 20% to emerging markets like Brazil [16]. - Mutual fund data indicates a growing trend among Indian investors to rebalance their portfolios towards non-US geographies, with significant growth in AUM for international funds outside the US [17]. - Experts recommend using mutual funds or ETFs for international exposure, as they provide better risk control and simpler taxation compared to direct stock ownership [21][22].