下周外盘看点丨美国非农、CPI联袂登场，英欧日三大央行年末决议齐聚

Market Overview - The global market has shown volatility this week, with the Federal Reserve announcing its third interest rate cut of the year. The Dow Jones increased by 1.05%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 1.62% and 0.63%, respectively [2] - European stock indices displayed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.19%, the German DAX 30 up by 0.66%, and the French CAC 40 down by 0.57% [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting revealed significant internal disagreements, with a 25 basis point rate cut and an updated dot plot indicating only one expected rate cut in 2026 [3] - Market expectations suggest more frequent rate cuts than the Fed's projections, with the U.S. money market pricing in two additional cuts [3] Employment and Inflation Data - Key employment and inflation data, delayed due to government shutdown, will be released soon, including the November non-farm payroll report and the consumer price index (CPI) [3] - The ADP private sector employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, suggesting potential downward risks for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [3] Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds and $24 billion in 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), testing investor demand for long-term bonds [4] Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down by 4.39% to $57.44 per barrel and Brent crude down by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and oversupply [5] - Gold prices rose by 2.07% to $4,300.10 per ounce, driven by the Fed's rate cut and a weaker dollar [6] Precious Metals Market - Analysts noted that the rise in silver prices is positively impacting gold, with strong momentum in the precious metals market [7] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's policy direction [7] European Central Bank Expectations - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting, with speculation about future rate hikes likely postponed until 2027 [8] - The ECB is anticipated to revise its short-term economic growth forecasts upward while slightly lowering medium-term inflation expectations [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators, including the December PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone, will be crucial for ECB decision-making [9] - The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to support a weakening economy, despite high inflation levels [9][10]