Stifel预警：2026年标普500或涨9%，但需警惕20%下跌风险

Core Viewpoint - Stifel's chief equity strategist Barry Bannister predicts a potential 9% increase in the S&P 500 index if the U.S. economy remains strong, but warns of a possible 20% decline in the event of a recession, which has a 25% likelihood according to Stifel's assessment [1][3]. Economic Outlook - Bannister's fundamental forecast suggests that the S&P 500 index could achieve positive returns by 2026, aligning with the Federal Reserve's recent upward revision of economic growth forecasts for that year [3]. - The expectation of a "soft landing" scenario indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing is likely to support the market [3]. Downside Risks - The report highlights significant downside risks, including signs of a loosening labor market, with rising unemployment rates and increasing layoffs, which could negatively impact consumer spending that constitutes 68% of the economy [3]. - Current stock market valuations are at historical highs, making the market particularly vulnerable to shocks; the median market correction during recessions since World War II has been 20%, with an average decline of 23% [3]. - The risk premium for the S&P 500 index is nearing levels seen during the late 1990s tech bubble, raising concerns about overvaluation [3]. - A decline in speculative sentiment is noted, with a basket of high-volatility stocks experiencing significant drops, indicating a potential weakening in market risk appetite [3]. Investment Recommendations - In light of the dual risks, Bannister advises investors to prepare for potential gains while also establishing hedging positions [4]. - Recommended defensive assets for portfolio construction include the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF), which aim to provide lower correlation or more defensive exposure compared to traditional equities [4].