等待下周非农数据指引 银价位于上涨轨道

Core Insights - Silver prices surged over 110% in 2025, marking the largest increase in over a decade, driven by a combination of factors including a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical risks, tightening silver inventories, and increased industrial demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent focus has shifted to economic data following the Federal Reserve's confirmation of interest rate cuts, with initial jobless claims rising to 236,000, the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, raising concerns about labor market weakness and further pressuring the dollar [1] - The University of Michigan's preliminary survey indicated that most respondents expect an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting declining consumer confidence [1] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September to its smallest level since mid-2020, with a nearly 11% reduction in the goods and services trade deficit to $52.8 billion, aiding economists in refining GDP estimates for the third quarter [1] Group 2: Employment Data Impact - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to be a significant market driver, with Powell highlighting risks in the labor market, suggesting that any unexpected weakness in employment data could bolster silver prices further [2] - Conversely, if employment remains resilient, the dollar may strengthen, potentially putting downward pressure on silver prices [2] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The current trading range for silver indicates that a breakthrough above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level at $63.85 could shift focus to the psychological level of $65.00 [3] - Support for silver is found at $61.50, with further targets at the December 10 low of $60.00 and the December 5 high of $59.35 if it falls below this support level [3]