政策分化定调走势 欧元区经济温和复苏

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the Euro against the US Dollar, highlighting the divergence in monetary policies between the US and the Eurozone as a key driver for the Euro's strength [1][2]. Group 1: US Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve completed its third interest rate cut of the year on December 12, 2025, with a 9:3 voting split indicating a heated debate between hawkish and dovish members [1]. - Despite the rate cut being accompanied by a "hawkish signal," the market anticipates continued easing in 2026, leading to a short-term decline in the US Dollar index [1]. - The Fed's decision to restart the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, interpreted as implicit easing, has further pressured the Dollar [1]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Resilience - The European Union forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% for the Eurozone in 2025, with a notable acceleration in the third quarter and strong performances from economies like France and Spain [1]. - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains at historically low levels, and consumer recovery is supporting the economic fundamentals [1]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates steady for three consecutive meetings, with President Lagarde stating that current rates are "appropriate," indicating a likelihood of no changes in December [1]. Group 3: Inflation and Export Pressures - The Euro's ascent faces dual constraints: inflation risks, with the Eurozone's core inflation at 2.4% in November, and potential downward pressure on inflation from a stronger Euro [2]. - Export pressures are heightened as the Euro is at a trade-weighted high, complicating the situation for German companies and increasing external uncertainties due to global trade barriers and rising tariffs on exports to the US [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The Euro has stabilized above the 60-day moving average, forming an upward trend line, but is approaching a dense trading zone between 1.16 and 1.17, leading to increased market caution and reduced trading volume [2]. - A breakout above this range could confirm an upward trend, while failure to do so may trigger profit-taking and test the lower bounds of the trading range [2]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the ECB's year-end meeting on December 18, where economic and inflation forecasts will be discussed, and the Federal Reserve's officials' speeches and US economic data releases to clarify the pace of Dollar easing [2]. - Predictions suggest that the Fed's rate cuts will slow in 2026 while the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, which could lead to continued strength in the Euro against the Dollar by year-end [2].