下周外盘看点丨美国非农、CPI联袂登场 英欧日三大央行年末决议齐聚

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, leading to mixed performance in global markets. The Dow Jones increased by 1.05% for the week, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell by 1.62% and 0.63% respectively [1] - European indices showed divergence, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.19%, the German DAX 30 up by 0.66%, and the French CAC 40 down by 0.57% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant internal disagreements, with the updated dot plot indicating only one expected rate cut in 2026. Market expectations, however, suggest more frequent cuts [2] - Concerns about inflation persist, but signs of a weakening job market may strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Recent ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm payroll report [2] Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds and $24 billion in 5-year TIPS, testing investor demand for long-term government debt amid improved liquidity concerns [3] Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices fell due to geopolitical factors and an oversupply in the global market. WTI crude dropped by 4.39% to $57.44 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 4.13% to $61.12 per barrel [4] - Gold prices rose by 2.07% to $4,300.10 per ounce, driven by the Fed's rate cut and a weaker dollar, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers [5] Precious Metals Market - Analysts noted that the rise in silver prices is positively impacting gold, with platinum and palladium also seeing price increases. The current inflation environment, which remains above the Fed's target, is favorable for gold [6] European Central Bank Expectations - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels during its upcoming meeting, with market speculation about potential rate hikes not anticipated until 2027 [7] - Key economic indicators, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, will be closely monitored as they may influence future ECB policy decisions [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Significant economic data releases are scheduled, including the December PMI for France, Germany, and the Eurozone, which will be crucial for ECB decision-making [8]