贵金属市场“黑马”！银价迭创新高，后劲如何？

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached historic highs in 2025, with London spot silver surpassing $60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures hitting $65.085 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of over 110% year-to-date, outperforming gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, 2025, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 110% this year, establishing silver as the leading commodity [1]. - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a shift in market dynamics, where silver's price increase has outpaced that of gold, driven by a change in demand patterns [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Silver Prices - The increase in silver prices can be segmented into phases: - January to February saw support from U.S. tariff policy risks, boosting safe-haven demand [2]. - March to April experienced a significant pullback due to international trade tensions, followed by a recovery as de-dollarization trends gained traction [2][3]. - From May to July, easing geopolitical tensions led to a rebound in market risk appetite, resulting in silver's price recovery [3]. - August to September saw financial attributes supporting both gold and silver, with supply chain tensions driving silver prices higher [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, silver is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by safe-haven and anti-inflation demand, despite a potential decline in industrial demand [5]. - The outlook suggests that while the Federal Reserve may enter a rate-cutting cycle, concerns over dollar credit and inflation will sustain interest in precious metals [5].