德国蓝皮书2025：中德经贸合作仍是中德关系主流

Group 1 - Recent polls indicate low expectations among German voters regarding the problem-solving capabilities of the black-red coalition led by Merz [3] - The "traffic light" coalition government under Chancellor Scholz is facing challenges, with public perception marked by ongoing disputes and obstruction [3] - If the current coalition fails to gain voter trust, Germany's political fragmentation and polarization may worsen, complicating the formation of effective future governments [3] Group 2 - The blue book forecasts a 0.2% contraction in Germany's GDP for 2024, marking the first instance of consecutive negative growth since 2003 [5] - Key sectors such as manufacturing and construction are experiencing significant declines, while the service sector shows mixed performance [5][6] - The automotive industry is notably affected by global market competition, supply chain issues, and technological transition pressures, leading to reduced production and challenges for suppliers [5] - Despite a 0.8% growth in the service sector, various sub-sectors are struggling, particularly traditional retail, which is impacted by the rise of online shopping [6] - The information and communication sector continues to grow, with a 2.5% increase driven by accelerated digital transformation and rising demand for IT services [6] - The blue book emphasizes the need for Germany to implement effective measures to promote manufacturing recovery, upgrade industries, enhance infrastructure, and improve service sector competitiveness for sustained economic growth [6]