渤海证券：政策基调初步明晰 A股市场延续震荡特征

Market Review - Major indices showed mixed performance in the past five trading days (December 5 - December 11), with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% [1][5] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.12%, while the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.00% [1][5] - Trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.86 trillion yuan per day, an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [1][5] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, telecommunications, comprehensive, and defense industries saw the highest gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel industries experienced the largest declines [1][5] Economic Data - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by multiple factors including a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [1][5] - Exports to the US saw a larger year-on-year decline, while exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU experienced substantial rebounds, indicating a continued optimization of export structure [1][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year and fell by 0.1% month-on-month, primarily driven by food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, due to a lower base and supply-side disruptions [1][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline mainly influenced by a higher base [1][5] Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party held a meeting to analyze and study economic work for 2026, maintaining a tone of "more proactive and effective" macro policies as emphasized in the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [2][6] - Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to emphasize "more proactive" and "moderately loose" measures, with a focus on integrating existing and new policies [2][6] - The economic work for 2026 will focus on building a strong domestic market and cultivating new growth drivers among eight key areas, with more detailed plans to be revealed in the Central Economic Work Conference [2][6] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with positive signals from the Political Bureau meeting and confirmation of overseas liquidity easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3][7] - The market is expected to regain strength driven by policy support and liquidity expectations, although some funds may delay allocation as the year-end approaches [3][7] - Investors are advised to remain patient and refine their strategies around policy and technology themes while waiting for sentiment to improve [3][7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing capital expansion from domestic and international cloud vendors, accelerated domestic substitution of computing power, and potential application-driven growth [3][7] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and ongoing solid-state battery industrialization [3][7] 3. Social services and resource products, with policy focus on structural adjustments and "anti-involution" creating competitive opportunities [3][7] - Additionally, the banking sector presents allocation opportunities due to a low interest rate environment and a shift in public fund holdings towards performance benchmarks [3][7]