东方证券：2026年多资产配置展望—当低利率邂逅风偏回归 资产配置被动为盾 主动为矛

Core Insights - The asset allocation for 2026 faces both long-term and short-term challenges, with a transition into a low-interest-rate environment impacting the effectiveness of traditional stock-bond hedging strategies [1][4] - There is a shift in investor risk appetite, moving from extremes towards a more balanced approach, influenced by increasing confidence in China's governance and the positive outlook for the technology sector [1][4] Long-term and Short-term Challenges - Long-term, the low-interest-rate environment will diminish the historical stock-bond hedging effectiveness [1][4] - Short-term, the transition between old and new economic drivers has led to polarized risk preferences among investors, which are now stabilizing [1][4] Focus on Income Generation and Risk Reduction - In a low-interest-rate context, the focus should be on income generation through diversification into two asset categories and risk reduction using three specific tools [1][4] - Historical examples from mature markets, such as the Yale Endowment and Bridgewater, highlight the importance of expanding into overseas and alternative assets for income generation [1][4] Strategies for Low and High Volatility - For low volatility strategies, there is an emphasis on domestic trading opportunities in fixed income and overseas yield opportunities, while equity investments are shifting from dividends to mid-cap blue chips [5] - High volatility strategies should focus on risk control, including diversifying overseas assets beyond US stocks and reallocating some technology investments in A-shares to mid-cap blue chips [5] Passive and Active Management Approaches - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 is characterized by a "passive as shield" approach, focusing on diversification through passive asset allocation, including commodities like gold and alternative assets such as REITs [6] - The "active as spear" approach emphasizes active management in low volatility strategies for flexibility and high volatility strategies for risk mitigation, including style rotation in equities and seeking active trading opportunities in bonds [6]