上海证券研究所所长花小伟：政策平稳接续 助推高质量发展

Group 1 - The core focus of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has shifted from maintaining stable economic growth to promoting qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, indicating a potential emphasis on high-quality development rather than strict numerical growth targets [1] - The fiscal policy will continue to implement a more proactive stance, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with expectations of a high fiscal deficit rate persisting into 2026 [2] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential adjustments including a 25-50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction in 2026, while also addressing deflation risks [2] Group 2 - The number of tasks outlined for 2025 has decreased from nine to eight, with the content framework largely unchanged, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and green transformation, among others [3] - The emphasis on risk mitigation has been moved to the last position, suggesting that progress has been made in addressing key risks [3] - The conference highlighted the implementation of a new round of key industrial chain development actions, particularly in innovation and technology sectors, which may receive government support [4] Group 3 - The establishment of a unified national market is expected to accelerate, which could help resolve the current imbalance of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [5] - The development of a renewable energy system is included in the national energy strategy, indicating a commitment to supporting the growth of the renewable energy sector [6]