Regime change in Venezuela could bring boost in oil production — but not as much as you’d think

Core Viewpoint - The potential for regime change in Venezuela could improve the nation's oil production infrastructure, leading to increased supplies and stabilizing global oil prices, but significant time and investment are required for these improvements [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Production and Infrastructure - A change in Venezuela's socialist regime could significantly impact oil supply and demand over the next decade, but immediate effects are unlikely [3]. - Wood Mackenzie estimates that with improvements and investments, Venezuela's oil output could reach approximately 2 million barrels per day within one to two years, with a potential increase of an additional 500,000 barrels per day taking up to a decade and billions in investment [4]. - Daily global oil production was nearly 102 million barrels in 2023, providing context for Venezuela's potential output increase [4]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions and Political Context - The U.S. has threatened to force the resignation of President Nicolás Maduro, partly due to accusations of drug trafficking, but access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves is also a significant factor [5]. - Recent U.S. actions, including the seizure of an oil tanker off Venezuela's coast, indicate escalating tensions and a focus on intercepting ships transporting Venezuelan oil [6].