美联储降息预期落地 国内消费稳健支撑棉价重心上移

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and China's central economic meeting have boosted market confidence, while domestic cotton prices are rising due to resilient consumption, contrasting with weak international demand [1][4]. Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are firm, with Zhengzhou cotton futures averaging 13,794 CNY/ton, up 31 CNY/ton (0.2%) from the previous week, and the national cotton price B index averaging 14,960 CNY/ton, up 41 CNY/ton (0.3%) [2]. - Internationally, the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut has improved market sentiment, but U.S. cotton production adjustments have kept prices weak, with New York cotton futures averaging 63.89 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound (0.7%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 2,401 CNY/ton, an increase of 129 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Domestic and international yarn prices have seen slight increases, with domestic C32S yarn averaging 20,785 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY/ton, 0.1%) and imported C32S yarn averaging 21,033 CNY/ton (up 41 CNY/ton, 0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices have decreased by 56 CNY/ton to 6,270 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut and rising expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes are influencing market dynamics, while Mexico's new tariffs on textiles pose additional challenges for Chinese exports [4]. - China's central economic meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various measures [4]. - Global cotton supply dynamics are shifting, with increased exports from the Southern Hemisphere and a decline in planting area expected in Brazil and Australia [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are progressing rapidly, with a processing rate of 84.0% and a sales rate of 41.6%, both showing year-on-year increases [6]. - Despite a slight recovery in textile exports, overall figures remain down, with November textile exports at $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year-on-year decline [7].