科技行情仍可期 当前或逢布局良机

Core Viewpoint - Liu Yuanhai, the Chief Investment Officer of Dongwu Fund, remains optimistic about the technology sector in 2026 despite recent market volatility, viewing current fluctuations as a buying opportunity for long-term investors [1][6]. Investment Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Dongwu Mobile Internet Mixed A fund managed by Liu achieved returns of 93.89% over the past year, 241.82% over three years, and 335.16% over five years, ranking 1 out of 1488 in its category for the past five years [1]. Market Analysis - Liu emphasizes that the current adjustment in the technology sector is a normal phenomenon, driven by profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing as the year-end approaches [3][4]. - The concentration of holdings in the technology sector, particularly in the electronics industry, has reached a historical high of 25%, raising concerns among investors; however, Liu argues that this does not necessarily indicate a downturn, as certain segments are expected to maintain high growth [4]. AI Bubble Discussion - Liu systematically analyzes the "AI bubble" from five dimensions: capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP, input-output ratio, revenue growth, valuation levels, and financing structure. He concludes that the current indicators do not suggest a typical bubble, with most metrics indicating a healthy state [5]. Future Outlook - Liu forecasts that the first quarter of 2026 may see an early spring rally, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and edge AI, particularly in areas like AR glasses and AI smartphones [6][7]. - The intelligent automotive sector is also highlighted as a promising investment area, with expectations of rapid development in smart vehicle technology by 2026 [7]. Team Dynamics - Dongwu Fund's investment team, consisting of over 20 members, emphasizes a collaborative approach to research and decision-making, which enhances the accuracy of investment strategies [8][9]. - The team conducts regular strategy meetings and discussions to ensure a collective understanding of market trends, which helps mitigate individual biases in investment decisions [8].