重视行业景气周期 看好半导体设备板块

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of industry cycle analysis, focusing on companies with high technical barriers and a strong commitment to their core business, particularly in the semiconductor equipment sector [1][5]. Investment Framework - The investment framework consists of three main components: industry cycle (40%-50% weight), competitive barriers (30%-40% weight), and valuation [1][2]. - Industry cycles are categorized into four phases: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, with a preference for entering during the transition from introduction to growth [2]. - Competitive barriers include technological barriers and product moats, which are crucial for generating excess returns, especially for companies in new productive forces [2][3]. - Valuation has become less significant in the investment framework, with a focus on product and technological barriers rather than traditional valuation metrics [3]. Company Selection Criteria - Key aspects for selecting companies include industry position and core competitiveness, growth potential and market space, innovation capability, financial health, and the management team's strategic ability [3][4]. - Companies lacking core technology, overly diversified, or engaged in price wars are avoided [4]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is viewed as a promising investment area, with expectations for growth in industry demand, orders, and profits over the next three years [5][6]. - The demand for mid-to-high-end semiconductor equipment is expected to increase due to clear expansion plans from large wafer fabs and the driving force of AI and emerging applications [6][7]. - The recent price increases in memory chips, particularly DRAM, have created a tight supply structure, which may continue into the first half of next year, although caution is advised due to potential impacts on downstream customer demand [6][7].