摩根资产管理盛楠：多重积极因素吸引外资 继续流入中国市场

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management's latest report predicts structural opportunities for long-term economic growth and market returns due to positive fiscal policy shifts and advancements in AI technology [1][2] - The report forecasts a 7% annualized return for global equities over the next 10 to 15 years, supported by strong corporate earnings growth [1] - Emerging market equities are expected to yield an annualized return of 7.8%, driven by favorable valuations and increased focus on shareholder returns [1][2] Group 1: Global Market Outlook - The report covers over 200 asset classes and 20 currencies, aiming to provide professional investors with long-term return expectations [1] - Despite high current valuations, the solid earnings growth outlook supports the anticipated returns for global equities [1] - Bonds are expected to provide significant income due to high initial yields and act as a hedge during economic downturns [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets and Asia - Morgan Asset Management is optimistic about Asian equities, particularly due to their exposure to technology and AI developments [2] - Chinese A-shares are projected to have returns close to the overall emerging market level, benefiting from the broader market trends [2] - The report indicates a 20 basis point upward adjustment in the assumption for China's long-term total factor productivity growth to 1% due to faster-than-expected advancements in AI and high-tech sectors [2] Group 3: A-shares vs. H-shares - A-shares exhibit lower correlation with global markets compared to H-shares, potentially offering better risk diversification in global investment portfolios [3] - Potential new capital inflows into the A-share market may arise from maturing fixed deposits and improved policy environments attracting foreign investment [3]