南方基金郑晓曦： 重视行业景气周期 看好半导体设备板块

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of industry cycle analysis, focusing on companies with high technical barriers and a strong commitment to their core business, particularly in the semiconductor equipment sector [1][6]. Investment Framework - The investment framework consists of three main components: industry cycle (40%-50% weight), competitive barriers (30%-40% weight), and valuation [2][3]. - Industry cycles are categorized into four phases: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, with a preference for entering during the transition from introduction to growth [2][3]. Competitive Barriers - Competitive barriers include technological barriers and product moats, which are crucial for generating excess returns [3]. - High competitive barriers are linked to company governance, management, core R&D technology, operational efficiency, and foresight in future growth [3]. Valuation Perspective - Valuation has become less significant in the investment framework, especially for technology stocks, where focus should be on product and technological barriers [3]. - High R&D investments during the transition from introduction to growth may not yield immediate financial returns, making high valuation metrics common in this phase [3]. Stock Selection Criteria - Key traits for stock selection include industry position, growth potential, innovation capability, financial health, and management quality [4]. - Companies lacking core technology, overly diversified, or engaged in price wars are avoided [5]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is viewed as a promising investment area, with expected growth driven by demand from large wafer fabs and emerging applications like AI [6][7]. - The recent price increases in memory chips, particularly DRAM, are expected to continue impacting demand, although caution is advised due to potential profit erosion for downstream clients [6][7]. Future Projections - The next three years are anticipated to see strong growth in the storage sector, driven by AI-related demand and a lack of significant capacity growth in recent years [7].