东吴基金刘元海： 科技行情仍可期 当前或逢布局良机

Core Viewpoint - Liu Yuanhai, the Chief Investment Officer of Dongwu Fund, remains optimistic about the technology sector in 2026 despite recent market volatility, viewing current fluctuations as a buying opportunity for long-term investors [1][5]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the Dongwu Mobile Internet Mixed A fund managed by Liu Yuanhai achieved returns of 93.89% over the past year, 241.82% over three years, and 335.16% over five years, ranking 1 out of 1488 in its category [1]. - Liu Yuanhai's investment strategy involves dynamic adjustments, focusing on current market trends, potential undiscovered industries, and future opportunities, aiming to maintain a portfolio that consistently trends upward [3][9]. - Liu Yuanhai's decisive actions during market downturns, such as increasing positions in undervalued companies, have allowed the fund to benefit from subsequent market recoveries [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - The technology sector has seen concentrated holdings, with the electronics industry accounting for 25% of public fund holdings, raising concerns among investors; however, Liu Yuanhai argues that this does not necessarily indicate a market peak [4][5]. - Liu Yuanhai conducted a systematic analysis of the "AI bubble" debate, concluding that key indicators such as capital expenditure, revenue growth, and valuation levels do not suggest a typical bubble, indicating a healthy state for the AI industry [5]. - The market correction has brought valuations down to levels seen in early September, suggesting a potential for a spring rally in early 2026, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and edge AI [5][6]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Liu Yuanhai continues to favor the computing power sector, noting that leading companies in sub-sectors like optical modules are now at relatively low valuations, with strong demand expected to drive performance in 2026 [6]. - The smart automotive sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with expectations for rapid growth in intelligent vehicle systems, despite short-term price wars affecting the industry [7]. - Liu Yuanhai also emphasizes the potential of the internet sector, particularly in Hong Kong, as AI applications begin to take hold, suggesting that advancements in text generation models could transform content creation and media [7]. Group 4: Team Dynamics and Research - The investment team at Dongwu Fund, consisting of over 20 members, emphasizes a collaborative culture that encourages knowledge sharing and collective decision-making to enhance research outcomes [8][9]. - Regular strategy meetings and discussions with external experts help the team refine their investment direction, reducing individual biases and improving the accuracy of market trend assessments [8]. - The team's successful performance, with multiple funds ranking in the top 25% of their categories, is attributed to a robust research framework and a strong grasp of industry trends [9].