国际货币基金组织报告显示——印度经济将面临显著短期风险

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicates that the Indian economy is performing well, supported by improving domestic conditions, with a projected growth rate of 6.5% for FY2024-2025 and 7.8% year-on-year GDP growth for Q1 FY2025-2026, despite facing significant short-term risks [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - For FY2025-2026, India's real GDP is expected to grow by 6.6%, with inflation projected to decrease to 2.8% [2] - By FY2026-2027, real GDP growth is anticipated to slow to 6.2%, with inflation rebounding to 4% [2] Trade and External Debt - The report forecasts that merchandise exports will reach $416.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.8%, while imports will amount to $746.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - External debt is projected to rise to $791 billion, accounting for 19.2% of GDP [2] Structural Reforms - The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on September 22, 2025, is expected to simplify the tax structure, stimulate domestic consumption, and mitigate the adverse effects of high tariffs [2] - Continuous structural reforms and fiscal consolidation are deemed crucial for India's economic reform [3] Fiscal Discipline and Revenue Generation - Achieving fiscal deficit targets requires strict fiscal discipline and careful monitoring of the impacts of tax rate reductions [3] - There is a need to increase domestic fiscal revenue to enhance the buffer space for fiscal policy [3] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights significant short-term risks, including potential tightening of financial conditions due to geopolitical fragmentation and unpredictable climate change risks affecting agriculture [3] - The government is urged to continue financial structural reforms and enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate [3] Human Capital and Investment - Strengthening human capital, increasing female labor participation, and optimizing the business environment are essential for sustained economic growth [4] - There is a call for increased R&D investment and innovation to support green economic transformation and sustainable growth [4]