原油周报：原油供应持续承压，期货价格创下阶段新低

Market Overview - Recent crude oil prices have significantly declined, with Brent crude settling at $61.12 per barrel, down $1.37 (-2.19%), WTI at $57.44 per barrel, down $1.44 (-1.87%), and Dubai crude at $61.46 per barrel, down $1.83 (-2.89%) [5][50][53] - Despite some positive news such as the U.S. increasing sanctions on Venezuela and issues with Kazakhstan's oil exports, the market remains dominated by oversupply concerns, leading to continuous price drops [5][50][53] Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA's monthly report adjusted the supply-demand balance for October and November upwards, indicating a higher-than-expected oversupply situation [6][31] - OPEC+ production in November was reported at 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day from October, while IEA reported a decrease in global supply by 610,000 barrels per day [6][51] - The overall inventory continues to rise as downstream demand has not sufficiently supported production levels, leading to further accumulation [6][51] Refinery Operations - U.S. refinery utilization increased slightly by 0.4% to 94.5%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable supply conditions [36][81] - The number of refinery outages decreased significantly, suggesting that the maintenance season is coming to an end, which may lead to further supply releases [36][81] Demand Insights - U.S. downstream demand has shown some recovery, particularly in distillate fuels, which increased to 4,158 thousand barrels per day, a week-on-week rise of 728 thousand barrels (21.22%) [38][83] - Air travel demand has increased following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, positively impacting jet fuel demand, while automotive travel data has not shown significant recovery yet [39][84] Economic Context - The U.S. is expected to enter a new round of interest rate cuts, which may influence both economic growth and oil demand positively [41][86] - The recent U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes maintaining supply chain security and prioritizing domestic economic development, which could have implications for energy policy [41][86]