智通财经网·2025-12-14 23:25Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]