智通财经网·2025-12-14 23:29Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chair's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to a shift in market expectations, indicating a lower likelihood of extreme hawkishness in future monetary policy, which is expected to support a strong spring rally in Hong Kong stocks due to liquidity easing and potential excess capital inflow [1][18]. Group 1: Spring Rally in Hong Kong Stocks - The spring rally in Hong Kong stocks (from Christmas to before the Spring Festival) is expected to occur, with historical data showing a high probability of gains for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index during this period, at 72.7% and 80.0% respectively, with median gains of 6.3% and 4.7% [2][17]. - The current market conditions suggest that the spring rally will not be hindered by liquidity concerns, as the peak of stock unlocks has passed, and the market is not overly worried about the impact of Japanese interest rate changes [18]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Trends - Over the past 15 years, the spring rally has consistently shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index achieving an average gain of 4.7% and the Hang Seng Index 3.8% during this period [2][17]. - The occurrence of a spring rally is often linked to factors such as liquidity easing and positive macroeconomic data, as seen in strong years like 2021 and 2023 [16][18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market's expectation of a dovish Federal Reserve Chair, following a significant drop in the probability of the hawkish candidate, suggests that the upcoming monetary policy will likely support market stability and growth [1][18]. - Anticipation for developments in DeepSeek's model and advancements in domestic internet companies' consumer applications is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology Index in the near future [18].