钢材：需求难有起色 钢价震荡偏弱

Core Insights - The inventory of five major steel materials decreased by 2.45% to 13.32 million tons, the lowest since this year's Spring Festival, while production fell by 2.74% to 8.06 million tons, and apparent demand dropped to 8.40 million tons, marking a recent historical low with a decline of 2.83% [2][52][47] - The macroeconomic outlook has short-term support, but the fundamental industry data remains average, indicating a persistent weak supply-demand balance in the steel market [2][52] Supply Analysis - The weekly production of five major steel materials totaled 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons compared to the previous week [53] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week-on-week and 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [67] - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.29 million tons, marking the first time it fell below 2.30 million tons since March of this year [36][67] Demand Analysis - Short-term macro expectations have temporarily settled, but the recovery of terminal real estate data is below expectations, particularly for rebar demand, which is at a historical low [28][77] - As of December 9, the funding availability rate for sample construction sites was 59.74%, with non-residential projects at 60.89% and residential projects at 54.13% [28][77] Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of steel in major cities was 9.41 million tons, down 368,100 tons week-on-week, while the inventory of steel mills increased by 33,100 tons to 3.90 million tons [30][79] - The total inventory of social and mill steel reached 13.32 million tons, a decrease of 33,500 tons, indicating a clear trend of seasonal destocking [30][79] Profitability Analysis - The average profit margin for saturated production increased by 5 yuan to -24 yuan per ton, while profits from electric arc furnaces rose to 84 yuan per ton, the highest in over four months [36][53] - The proportion of profitable independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.13% to 34.71%, while the proportion of loss-making mills decreased by 2.48% to 14.88%, the lowest in three and a half months [36][53] Price Movement - The main rebar contract RB2605 fluctuated weakly, closing at 3,069 yuan per ton, down 106 yuan week-on-week, with an open interest of 1.6021 million lots [54] - The hot-rolled coil contract HC2605 also showed a weak trend, closing at 3,238 yuan per ton, down 94 yuan week-on-week [56]