碳酸锂：去库持续进行，锂价支撑仍强

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a rebound this week, with wide fluctuations within a range. Inventory reduction in the industry continues, but the pace may slow down in December compared to November. Downstream entities are beginning to actively reduce inventory, while traders are actively stockpiling. Upstream capacity utilization has reached new highs, but there are signs of weakening demand in the downstream power market. The recovery and insufficient production in the lithium mining sector, combined with the impact of environmental inspections, provide strong support for lithium prices. The exchange's modification of delivery rules may boost market confidence in the short term [5][39]. Mining Sector - This week, the central price of minerals has significantly rebounded alongside futures prices. Overseas mines are willing to release high-priced products, and demand from buyers supports mineral prices [3][35]. Upstream Sector - Upstream capacity utilization has reached a new high, with new production lines for spodumene and salt lakes contributing to increased output in November. The inventory of lithium carbonate continues to decrease, although the pace of reduction has slightly slowed. According to SMM data, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate reached 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from the previous week [3][24][35]. Downstream Sector - The peak season is coming to an end, with a decline in demand in the power and consumer markets, while energy storage continues to see strong supply and demand. Some ternary enterprises are looking to reduce inventory, while major phosphate iron lithium manufacturers are still operating at full capacity, and smaller manufacturers are gradually transitioning to contract manufacturing. This week, the market price of phosphate iron lithium has slightly increased, while ternary prices remain stable [3][35]. Market Information - On the 12th, the Guangxi Futures Exchange adjusted delivery details, changing the quality standards to the 2023 version and shifting from an exempt brand system to a registered brand system. This change is expected to improve the alignment between futures and spot markets, promoting industry development and concentration [4][36]. - This week, the spot transaction focus has risen, driven by downstream demand and inventory reduction intentions. The main contract's trading volume and open interest have increased, with the market showing a strong upward trend while remaining within a range, maintaining a premium over the spot market [4][37]. Future Focus - Attention will be on the exchange's release of modified rules for lithium carbonate futures and options business after Friday's trading, which may boost market confidence in the short term. The pace of inventory reduction is slowing, and there is a need to be cautious about weakening demand [6][40]. - The movements in the mining sector remain a key factor affecting the market, requiring continuous monitoring [7][40]. - The pressure from new supply capacity in the supply side may gradually become prominent in the medium to long term, and considerations for the industry's return to inventory accumulation should take into account the basic fundamentals moving towards the off-season [8][41].