华泰 港股策略：左侧布局市场“预期差”

Market Overview - The current market has limited downside potential, but the upside remains uncertain. The sentiment indicator for Hong Kong stocks is still in a pessimistic range, indicating a bottoming phase similar to November 2024. After entering a panic zone, the market saw a significant rebound in early 2025, catalyzed by DeepSeek before the Lunar New Year [1]. - The expected catalysts for future market movements may arise from three key areas: 1) Renminbi appreciation, which could lead to significant changes in capital flows once consensus forms; 2) Companies expanding overseas, with expectations of resilience in exports despite concerns over exchange rate appreciation; 3) Breakthroughs in domestic technology and independent paths [1]. Performance Comparison - Hong Kong stocks have underperformed compared to A-shares, with the MSCI Hong Kong index declining by 3.3% and the Hang Seng index by 10.3% since October, while the MSCI China index rose by 2.2% [2][3]. - The AH premium index has shown minimal change, indicating that the differences in sentiment and liquidity between the two markets are not the core reasons for the underperformance [2]. Sector Analysis - Since October, sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and retail (including e-commerce and new consumption companies) in the Hong Kong stock market have experienced declines exceeding 10% [2][6]. - The market sentiment has been particularly affected by the performance of unique assets in Hong Kong, with southbound funds focusing on these sectors [2]. Capital Flow and Sentiment - Southbound capital inflows have significantly decreased, with net buying intensity dropping from around 90 at the end of September to nearly zero currently [2][9]. - The overall liquidity environment is expected to improve, which may lead to a rebound in certain sectors, particularly technology and pharmaceuticals in the short term [1]. Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized structural adjustments, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, with a moderate fiscal policy stance and a commitment to appropriate monetary easing [12]. - Key tasks include boosting domestic demand, promoting technological innovation, and addressing real estate risks, which may influence market dynamics moving forward [12].