华泰期货软商品周报：郑棉期价震荡反弹，白糖走势依旧偏弱

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract 2601 closed at 13,835 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton, or 0.62% week-on-week [2][17] - In Xinjiang, the spot price of cotton reached 14,896 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton, while the national weighted average spot price was 15,062 CNY/ton, increasing by 40 CNY/ton [2][18] - As of the end of November 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 4.6836 million tons, up 175.3 thousand tons, a 59.82% increase from the previous month [3][18] International Market Analysis - The USDA reported a 36% decrease in net cotton contracts for the week of November 7-13, with a total of 42,547 tons signed [2][18] - The U.S. cotton production is under pressure due to increased inventory levels, while global textile consumption remains weak, leading to short-term pressure on cotton prices [4][18] - The cotton market is expected to face seasonal supply pressures as new cotton is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere [4][19] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase as the harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, contributing to a seasonal rise in commercial inventory [5][19] - The demand side shows weakness as the textile industry enters its off-season, although spinning profits have improved, limiting downward pressure on cotton prices [5][19] - The strategy suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, focusing on buying opportunities in the 05 contract due to expected tight supply in the new year [6][20] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract 2605 closed at 5,214 CNY/ton, down 19 CNY/ton, or 0.36% week-on-week [7][21] - In Guangxi, the spot price of sugar was 5,370 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, it was 5,295 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton [7][22] - Brazil's sugarcane planting area is projected to be 9.398 million hectares, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month, with sugar production expected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year [8][22] Market Dynamics - The global sugar supply remains in surplus, with no immediate signs of reversal, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the short to medium term [9][23] - Domestic sugar supply is currently ample as factories in Guangxi begin production, although the market remains under downward pressure [9][23] - The strategy is neutral, with attention on market dynamics that could lead to new lows, while maintaining a low-level consolidation approach [10][24] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract 2605 closed at 5,534 CNY/ton, an increase of 44 CNY/ton, or 0.80% week-on-week [11][25] - The average price of needle pulp in Shandong was 5,590 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton, while Russian needle pulp averaged 5,090 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton [11][26] - Recent announcements of mill closures and maintenance in North America are expected to impact supply, while demand in Europe shows signs of improvement [13][27] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite high inventory levels in domestic ports, recent declines in stock levels indicate potential marginal demand growth for pulp as paper production capacity expands [13][27] - The strategy remains neutral, with recent price increases driven by market adjustments, although fundamental supply-demand conditions have yet to show significant improvement [14][28]