国金证券:首予先声药业“买入”评级目标价20.16港元
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-15 01:26

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) is experiencing strong growth due to the resonance of short-term pipeline expansion and long-term innovation iteration, with a projected revenue of 7.63 billion, 9.10 billion, and 11.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.0%, 19.3%, and 21.4% [2][6] Short-term Outlook - The company is entering a concentrated harvest period for its core pipeline, with accelerated inclusion in medical insurance expected to drive performance [3][6] - Key products in the oncology field, such as Kexaila and Enlitaz, are set to be included in medical insurance by the end of 2024, while another product, Enzeshou, will be included by the end of 2025, which is anticipated to rapidly capture market share [3][6] - In the neurology field, the insomnia drug Dalirelin, which is a non-controlled substance, is expected to have a peak market potential exceeding 4 billion yuan due to its fast-acting and non-addictive properties [3][6] Long-term Outlook - The early research pipeline focuses on differentiated targets, with several products already achieving business development (BD) success, indicating sustained innovation capability [4][9] - The NMTiADC new technology platform is expected to overcome ADC resistance, with related products entering clinical trials to further validate the platform's strength [4][9] - The company has strengthened its early research investments, with the potential for numerous early-stage pipelines to continue achieving BD opportunities in the future [4][9] Market Position and Product Performance - The Xianbi New Injection, a benchmark product in the stroke treatment field, achieved a market share of 29% in the first half of 2025 [5][9] - The company is making significant inroads in the oncology sector with products like Envida and Endu, which are expected to achieve steady growth [5][9] - Aidesin has established a brand advantage in the rheumatology and immunology field, and despite facing potential centralized procurement risks, its mature sales channels are expected to support the future growth of its autoimmune pipeline [5][9]