Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Reconstruct Energy (02570) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 84.63, based on a P/S valuation method corresponding to a 7x 2026 P/S multiple, with projected EPS of -6.0 and -4.7 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Reconstruct Energy is a leading fuel cell company in China, expected to hold an 18% market share in 2024, with R&D expenses significantly exceeding peers, positioning it as a technology leader in the industry [3] - The company is focused on self-research and production of key components such as stacks, membrane electrodes, and bipolar plates, promoting domestic production of core components [3] - The company has a strong presence in the heavy-duty truck sector, with a 42% market share in 2023, and is continuously expanding into low-cost hydrogen and other market applications [3] Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - The fuel cell industry is experiencing rapid technological advancements and cost reductions, with expectations that the total lifecycle cost of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks will reach parity by 2028 [2] - Global fuel cell vehicle sales are projected to reach 426,000 units by 2028, with a CAGR of 97.5% from 2023 to 2028 [2] - The company is launching PEM electrolyzers and membrane electrodes in 2023, and plans to introduce off-grid supercharging piles in 2024, which will alleviate electricity expansion pressures in various applications [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - CICC forecasts the company's revenue to be CNY 670 million and CNY 980 million for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price based on a 7x P/S multiple for 2026, indicating a 17.5% upside from the current stock price [1] - The sales of non-automotive fuel cell systems are expected to exceed CNY 54 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 133% [4] - The company aims for overseas fuel cell system revenue to account for 9% of total revenue by 2024, indicating potential for accelerated growth in international markets [4]
中金：首予重塑能源(02570)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价84.63港元